Wide receivers are all the rage and their point totals back it up. While running backs come and go every year due to injury and depth chart shake-ups, elite wide receivers serve as the backbone of any quality fantasy roster.
The WR1 in PPR last year, Cooper Kupp, scored 439.5 points and the WR12, Mike Williams, scored 246.6 points. The WR24, Tee Higgins, scored 219.1 points (14 games played). Where am I going with this? Well the scoring totals for the RB1, RB12 and RB24 were 373.1, 226 and 173.9. The positional point differentials between wide receiver and running back reveal a steeper point dropoff at RB. As you go further down the rabbit hole, you’ll see it stays on that trend. The RB50, Mark Ingram, scored 108.6 points and the WR50, Elijah Moore, scored 138.2 points.
This is important to keep in mind. You want elite receivers. Managing the running back position is more chess than checkers. It’s a cerebral chess match on the waiver wire as you jockey to secure the RB flavor of the week.
Wideouts, on the other hand, are your fantasy muscle. You want the best from the start and hitting on a sleeper receiver can be a game-changer—a league winner. Just ask the fantasy managers who a year ago drafted Kupp in the fourth round (4.05), and often after his teammate Robert Woods. Snagging the eventual WR1 that late is huge, so let’s see if we can find a sleeper receiver who makes the leap.
Before we dive in, I’d like to clarify what is a sleeper in the first place. Sleeper, to me, doesn’t mean a player nobody has heard of that comes out of nowhere to succeed. I believe that’s more of a fantasy "breakout" than sleeper. Instead, a sleeper is a player who will significantly outperform his current average draft position value.
Sleepers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Speaking of Kupp, what propelled his monumental 2021 season? Well, he deserves all the credit in the world but it certainly helped to add Matthew Stafford. It may not be as dramatic an improvement, but Matt Ryan is a big get for the Colts.
Indy did little to add competition to this WR depth chart this offseason. Pittman remains the clear-cut WR1 with the unproven Parris Campbell in the slot and second-rounder Alec Pierce out of Cincinnati. There’s little going on at tight end between Mo Alie-Cox and third-rounder Jelani Woods. The offense still begins and ends with Jonathan Taylor, yet I’m expecting many huge play-action bombs headed in Pittman’s direction.
Last year, Pittman saw a crazy 25.7% target share and that might increase if there’s chemistry with Ryan. As noted in my sleeper quarterbacks article:
Pittman is the consensus ranked No. 16 WR. His overall ADP (45) and WR ADP (17) could tick up as the offseason progresses. I understand most wouldn’t consider Pittman a sleeper given his promising 2021 season (88-1,082-6) but I believe there’s still room for even more growth in his numbers.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs
Been there, done that—that’s what Smith-Schuster should tell all the doubters. Just look at his consensus draft ranking (WR25) and he’s even lower in ADP (overall 95.4, WR 38.5). That’s crazy! So on one hand Patrick Mahomes is the consensus QB2 or QB3, right? He threw for 4,839 yards and 37 touchdowns last season, in what most would consider a down year or at best, an average season. Let’s give 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns to Travis Kelce, so that leaves us 3,600 yards and 27 touchdowns left to spread around. You’re telling me that’s mostly going to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore and Clyde Edwards-Helaire? C’mon now.
Tyreek Hill’s trade to Miami vacated 111 receptions on 159 targets for 1,239 yards and nine TDs. While Smith-Schuster will be four years removed from his breakout 2018 season, we can’t just ignore Mahomes, the WR depth chart and the productivity of the Chiefs compared to the Steelers.
Considering the cost of his draft capital as a late eighth-round option, Smith-Schuster might be the WR5 on your roster. If he flops, your second-best bench WR didn’t pan out. If he hits, well, we’ve already seen what he can do when he posted 111-1,426-7 back in 2018. And mind you, that was when he was playing second fiddle to Antonio Brown. Let defenses double Kelce and JJSS will eat out of the slot.
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Bread and butter—that’s what you need in a QB-WR pairing. Sutton has toiled in an offense that’s lacked substance at quarterback for his whole career. Tack on a season-ending ACL tear in 2020, and the 26-year-old has had one too many failed launches. We’re going back to the launching pad and there’s one big reason why: Russell Wilson, the bread to Sutton’s butter.
Wilson is one of the best downfield passers in the game with the sixth-best passer rating on throws of 20-plus air yards last season, Sutton should see more opportunities to break off big plays. Last season was just the second time Wilson did not finish as a top-10 fantasy QB. He’s been a top-three QB four times, most recently in 2019. Do I believe there’s any less mustard on his hot dog? No. He turns 34 in November. Like Peyton Manning before him, Wilson will find a second wind in the Mile High City.
The key for Sutton though is volume and that’s no guarantee. The truth is there’s a sleeper case to be made for Sutton and his teammates, Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick. We have to shoot our shot, though, and I believe given his skill set and experience, Sutton is most primed for a breakout. We have to remember that his 2019 season was excellent (72-1,112-6) and he’s now in a position to build on those numbers with Wilson under center.
The fourth-year receiver out of SMU is currently the consensus WR24, one spot behind Jeudy. His early ADP is actually significantly lower, overall 72.0 and WR 29.5, so there’s still plenty of value to be found here.
Final thought: A year ago, many were calling for Brandon Aiyuk to be a sleeper and that quickly flatlined as Deebo Samuel went off. I believe Sutton is to Samuel as Aiyuk is to Jeudy in this equation.
