Who will punch its ticket to the College Football Playoff semifinals?
We will find out over the course of New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day with four College Football Playoff quarterfinals matchups on a neutral field. We are here to get you set for this round with a best bet for three of the four matchups, highlighted by the final game of the round, the Sugar Bowl between Georgia and Notre Dame!
Best Bets for College Football Playoff QuarterfinalsPenn State vs. Boise State UNDER 53Ohio State vs. Oregon OVER 55Georgia ML (-140) vs. Notre Dame
Penn State vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick
The Boise State offense is going to be up against it facing the Penn State defensive line that ranks top 10 in major rush-stopping categories including defensive line yards, EPA/Rush, and yards per carry.
The Broncos offense revolves around Jeanty, who averages 26 carries and 192 yards per game. However, the team’s ability to lean on Jeanty has masked the limited passing game the group has to offer.
Maddux Madsen has put together an impressive stat line this season, but digging under the hood shows that he has benefited from playing alongside Jeanty and in favorable situations. While he has 22 touchdown passes to only three interceptions, Madsen has made only nine big-time throws to 16 turnover-worthy plays.
Given that the Penn State defensive line should be able to keep a lid on Jeanty more than other teams have, there may be more on Madsen’s plate in this game. However, Madsen has struggled under pressure this season, making only one big-time throw to eight turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus.
So, can Penn State pounce on Boise State’s defense?
The Broncos' defense has been boom or bust all season. The team ranks second in the country in sacks, but the group has been vulnerable to big plays, outside the top 90 in explosive play rate. Most importantly, the group has struggled against the pass, ranking outside the top half of the country in EPA/Pass.
While Penn State is centered around its dual-threat run game between Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, I believe that this game should set up nicely for Allar to have a big game through the air.
The Nittany Lions are a top 10 in EPA/Pass and sacks allowed, so the group should be well-equipped to handle Boise State’s defensive line and set up opportunities down the field for Allar and Co.
However, Penn State has proven confident in its defense and content to limit its opponents and lean on its ground game, especially in a favorable game state.
Boise State ranks 95th in seconds per play and Penn State is 105th, so there may be limited snaps in this one. Further, given the tough matchup for the Boise State offense, I believe we are primed for a defensive-minded Penn State victory.
Ohio State vs. Oregon Prediction and Pick
Two of the best in the country will play in a projected tightly contested affair.
The Buckeyes offense will look slightly different in this matchup, more short-handed on the offensive line, but I still believe the Buckeyes will have answers for the Ducks' sturdy defense.
Oregon’s defense struggles to contain the run, evident in games against Boise State and Penn State, and that can open up downfield pass attempts for the Buckeyes offense.
The Ducks defensive line is a middling rush-stopping unit, ranked outside the top 80 in defensive line yards and 63rd in EPA/Rush. While a disciplined defense that limits explosive run plays, the Buckeyes should be able to keep the ball on the ground reliably. In the first meeting, Ohio State averaged nearly six yards per rush.
However, the Buckeyes struggled to match the Ducks offense, who opened up the playbook and torched the Ohio State secondary, averaging more than 10 yards per dropback and a 92nd percentile EPA/Dropback mark when compared to games last season.
The Ducks offense will be equipped to handle the Buckeyes, who ultimately haven’t faced teams with the type of speed Oregon has.
There were only four tackles for loss combined in the first meeting as I expect offenses to rule the day in the Rose Bowl, making for a high-scoring back-and-forth matchup.
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick
This game will likely be a rock fight between these two physical defenses and offenses that are buoyed by efficiency over big plays.
While the Fighting Irish were able to shut down Indiana, the team won’t enjoy the size advantage in the trenches against the Bulldogs, who will be the best defensive line the team has seen this season.
It’s worth noting that Georgia has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks all season, namely Jalen Milroe (116 yards), Jaxson Dart (50 yards), and Haynes King (110 yards), and Riley Leonard fits a similar mold as someone capable of taking over games with his legs.
However, the Fighting Irish will be up against it facing the Bulldogs defense that has seen a Mike Denbrock offense before back with LSU in the 2022 SEC Championship Game, allowing only 47 rushing yards in a 50-30 victory.
The Fighting Irish struggled to move the ball against Indiana. Outside of a 98-yard touchdown run from Jeremiyah Love, the Irish averaged about four yards per snap. Of course, the game script was favorable, but this was not the dominant offensive showing that many made the game out to be.
Meanwhile, I believe the Bulldogs can use the extra week of prep to acclimate Stockton into the role of QB1 and the team can craft a gameplan that can test a Notre Dame defense that has faced a limited group of offenses to date.
As well, the Fighting Irish will be down starting defensive line Rylie Mills for this one after he suffered a knee injury in the first-round win.
The Notre Dame defense is far worse against the run, 46th in EPA/Rush, and the Bulldogs may be able to pound the Irish into submission.
