All right teams, pencils down.
The race for MLB’s 12 playoff spots came down to the final day. The American League East and Central divisions were claimed by the Blue Jays and Guardians, respectively, leaving the Yankees and Tigers to settle for wild-card bids. The last National League wild-card spot went to the Reds, whose mediocrity was no match for the utterly dysfunctional Mets, who went 38–55 over the last three-and-a-half months and lost 14 of their last 21 to miss out by virtue of a tiebreaker.
With that, we have our playoff bracket. The best-of-three wild-card round will begin Tuesday, so before the action kicks off, it seemed only right to establish a pecking order for our dozen World Series hopefuls. We’ll highlight one x-factor per squad who will be key in determining each team’s fate. The lights are brightest in October, and here’s how things stand as we head into the fray.
12. Cincinnati Reds
Playoff x-factor: Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La Cruz had a quiet second half of the season, but the Reds still managed to sneak into the postseason, thanks in part to a collapse from the Mets. He hit just two home runs since July 31, but if he can rediscover his power at the plate, he could help propel Cincinnati to an upset series win over the Dodgers. Defensively, De La Cruz has a brilliant arm, but also led MLB with 26 fielding errors. He’ll need to be at his best both offensively and defensively if the Reds want to make serious noise in the postseason.
11. Cleveland Guardians
Playoff x-factor: Kyle Manzardo
The Guardians finished the season with the fewest runs scored and lowest slugging percentage in the American League, yet still managed to win the AL Central on the strength of strong team defense and a stellar bullpen. To make a run in October, they’ll need to get power from somebody other than José Ramírez (and he’ll need to provide plenty as well). The best candidate is Manzardo, who tied for the team lead with 12 homers after the All-Star break and finished the year with 27, second-most behind Ramírez.
10. Detroit Tigers
Playoff x-factor: Kyle Finnegan
The Tigers went 6–15 down the stretch to blow what was an 11-game lead over the Guardians, yet still made the playoffs as a wild-card team. The need for a proven closer has been evident all season long, and Detroit acquired Finnegan at the trade deadline to address it. He didn’t allow a run through his first 12 appearances with the team, but a groin injury kept him out three weeks in September. He’s looked shaky since his return, giving up three runs in four games. The Tigers will need Finnegan to rediscover his form and provide some stability in the late innings if they’re to reverse course following their September collapse.
9. Boston Red Sox
Playoff x-factor: Alex Bregman
The Red Sox signed Bregman in part to provide vital experience for a relatively young group that hasn’t been through the playoff pressure cooker. The third baseman is no stranger to October baseball, with 19 homers in 99 postseason games to go along with two World Series titles with the Astros. Bregman’s bat has gone cold at the worst time, though, as he’s hit .186 over his last 30 games with just six extra-base hits. The Red Sox will need him to pick things back up to give their lineup enough thump to outslug the Yankees in the wild-card round.
8. Chicago Cubs
Playoff x-factor: Kyle Tucker
Historically, Kyle Tucker hasn’t been the most productive player in the postseason. In 64 playoff games, he has a .685 OPS with eight home runs. Can he turn things around in his first postseason with the Cubs? Tucker had a tremendous first half of the season, but slumped in the second half. He just returned from an IL stint, and if he can return to the levels he displayed in April and June, he could play a crucial role in helping Chicago get past the Padres in the opening round. He’ll be one of the most experienced players on the Cubs postseason roster, so it’ll be critical for him to be at his best.
7. San Diego Padres
Playoff x-factor: Dylan Cease
You really never know what you’re going to get with Dylan Cease. The Padres starter enjoyed his sixth straight season with more than 200 strikeouts in 2025, but for the second time in three years, his ERA ballooned over 4.50. When at his best, Cease is a Cy Young-caliber pitcher with some of the best stuff in baseball. But he’s been inconsistent throughout his career, and he may be on a shorter leash in October as a result of that. When Cease takes the mound in the postseason, Padres fans will be holding their breath. Whatever way it plays out, it’ll be crucial for San Diego as they look to get past the Cubs and potentially make a deep run.
6. Toronto Blue Jays
Playoff x-factor: Trey Yesavage
On paper, the Blue Jays don’t have the most imposing rotation among the 12 playoff teams. Yesavage can change that outlook in a hurry, though. The 22-year-old rookie made his big-league debut just two weeks ago and has only three starts under his belt, but he has the ability to miss bats that this staff sorely needs. Toronto seems prepared to trust the 2024 first-round pick in October, and though he’ll likely have a short leash, Yesavage has the potential to alter his team’s fortunes if he can handle the big stage.
5. Milwaukee Brewers
Playoff x-factor: Quinn Priester
Priester was outstanding in his first season with the Brewers. He made 24 starts and 29 total appearances, while establishing himself as one of the best young arms in the sport, and a key piece of Milwaukee’s rotation. Priester won 13 games and had a 3.32 ERA with 132 strikeouts in 157 ⅔ innings this season, and after a successful first full season in MLB, he’ll now be gearing up for his first taste of the postseason. Pitching in October is a different beast than it is in the regular season, so the team will be counting on Priester to stay at his best when the lights get brighter. It’s a tall task for a 25-year-old, but he’s proven all year how dominant he can be, and if he pitches well, the Brewers will be a difficult matchup for anyone.
4. New York Yankees
Playoff x-factor: David Bednar
Bednar has given the Yankees some much-needed stability at the back end of their bullpen after Devin Williams spent much of the year struggling in the closer’s role. The former Pirate gave up two runs and blew a save in his Yankees debut upon arriving at the trade deadline. Since then, he’s put up a 1.57 ERA in 21 appearances, converting 10 of 12 save chances with 33 strikeouts in 23 innings. It’s worth noting that Williams seemed to have figured things out down the stretch, as he posted a 2.50 ERA (and 0.36 FIP) over his last 19 appearances, striking out 34 out of 70 batters he faced. If these two maintain that form, New York will be tough to beat.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
Playoff x-factor: The entire bullpen, specifically Tanner Scott
The Dodgers are probably quite confident that Shohei Ohtani will be at his best, both at the plate and on the mound. This team is a well-oiled machine with some of the best players in all of the sport at virtually every position. The one area of concern for the Dodgers heading into October is the bullpen. Despite signing Tanner Scott to a lucrative contract this offseason, the closer has struggled in his first year in L.A. He owns a 4.74 ERA (almost 3 full points more than his 1.75 mark in 2024) and his K/9 dropped from 10.5 in ‘24 to 9.5 in ‘25. He’s recorded just 23 saves in 33 opportunities, leading MLB with 10 blown saves. Regardless of how the rest of the team performs, if the bullpen can’t get the job done when the baton is passed to them, the Dodgers may not have another World Series run in them.
2. Seattle Mariners
Playoff x-factor: Bryan Woo
Seattle has three pitchers who have ace potential in the playoffs. Woo, who led the team in innings and strikeouts, was the most consistent of the bunch, but he enters the postseason having not pitched since Sept. 19 while dealing with inflammation in his right pectoral muscle. The Mariners have expressed cautious optimism he’ll be ready for the division series, and if he is, he gives Seattle one of the most imposing starting rotations in baseball alongside Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Luis Castillo.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Playoff x-factor: Jesus Luzardo
Jesus Luzardo enjoyed a terrific first season with the Phillies, but now he’ll be called upon to step up in the bright lights of October. With Zack Wheeler out for the year, it’ll be Cristopher Sanchez and Luzardo spearheading Philadelphia’s rotation. For Luzardo, this will be his fourth trip to the postseason, but first with realistic expectations of contending for a World Series. Luzardo has struggled in the playoffs in the past, logging a 6.14 ERA across 14 ⅔ innings. He’s also coming off a career-high 183 ⅔ innings in the regular season, so fatigue may be a concern for the standout southpaw as he pitches deeper into a season than ever before.
