Aston Villa are in desperate to turn around their horrendous run of form. The Villans are without a win in seven games, and it is having a detrimental effect on their season.
They are eighth in the Premier League, although are just three points off the top four, and have slipped to ninth in the Champions League, having been in the top eight at one stage.
Unai Emery’s side last won over a month ago, on the 22nd of October away to Italian side Bologna. This poor run of form by the Villans is incredibly frustrating, but their underlying Premier League numbers do not suggest they should be in such a rut.
The underlying stats for Villa this season
Firstly, it is important to look at the Villan’s overall record in the Premier League. They have played 12 games, winning five times, including a fantastic late comeback against Everton, drawing four games and losing three.
With 19 points to their name, the campaign is far from a disaster, although given their form, it could easily end up that way if they don’t win some games.
They are slightly underachieving their points tally this term. According to Understat, Emery’s side have an expected points total of 20.43xPTS, a gap of 1.43 compared to their actual points. That is the fifth-highest expected points total in the Premier League.
Another stat to look at is their expected goals tally compared to their actual goals scored. Villa this season have 23.97xG, a sizeable underachievement from their 19 goals scored in reality, although it has been a common occurrence this year for top-half sides to have a lower expected goals.
The same thing can be applied to goals against versus the actual number of goals against. The metric has Villa 18.01xGA, the sixth best in the top flight. It is almost spot on, given they have conceded 19 times in reality.
So, the numbers suggest they should not be playing as badly as they are. This weekend, Emery’s men travel to Stamford Bridge to face Chelsea, which would be a good time to get three points, as they can leapfrog them with a win.
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They will need someone to stop Cole Palmer, Chelsea’s star man, and the perfect player to do so could be Cobham academy graduate Ian Maatsen.
Ian Maatsen’s importance vs. Chelsea
Maatsen was a major summer signing for the Villans. He cost £37.5m from Chelsea, although has struggled to properly break into the side under Emery this term. The Dutchman has 16 games in all competitions to his name so far.
However, Villa’s Spanish boss might well decide to unleash him on Sunday afternoon at his former home ground, to help stop the incredibly dangerous Palmer.
He has made a flying start to the 2024/25 campaign already, scoring seven goals and registering five assists in 12 games in the top flight.
Although the Dutchman is more prominently known for his attacking prowess, he is certainly a good player without the ball, and is very much a “complete” player, as football talent scout Jacek Kulig once described him.
One of his best assets is his speed, which helps to make him a fantastic recovery defender, ensuring he could be the man to help shackled Palmer in that right channel.
This is certainly backed up by the stats on FBref. Over the course of the last 365 days across Europe’s big five leagues, the 22-year-old has made 5.73 ball recoveries, which ranks him in the 88th percentile (top 12%) and has won 1.55 tackles, ranking him in the 78th percentile (top 22%).
Stat (per 90)
Number
Percentile
Tackles won
1.55
78th
Ball recoveries
5.73
88th
Blocks
1.44
78th
Clearances
2.85
76th
The former Borussia Dortmund loanee will surely have a point to prove at the Bridge on Sunday. He had limited opportunities at the club, but locking up their star man would certainly prove exactly why the Blues should have kept him.
It would be a bold move for Emery to start Maatsen over Digne, his first-choice left-back for much of the season. However, given the player has extra motivation for Sunday, it could be an inspired change as they look to break this poor run of form and get a much-needed win.
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